A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
