🔗 Share this article From Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader. A shock assault on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for four years.” Such commentary have fed a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated. Allies in Decline For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington. Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.” The Ukraine Priority Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added. Tangible Costs and New Threats Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, determines results. “Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”
A shock assault on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for four years.” Such commentary have fed a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated. Allies in Decline For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington. Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.” The Ukraine Priority Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added. Tangible Costs and New Threats Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, determines results. “Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”