🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Participant Made $436,000 on Wagers Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A trader earned a substantial sum on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro immediately preceding it was officially announced, raising questions about the possibility of profiting from confidential information of American actions. Market Movement in Wagers Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office by the end of January increased in the period preceding Donald Trump announced on Saturday that Maduro had been taken into custody. A single trader, which became a member recently and placed four wagers, all on Venezuela, earned over $436K from a starting bet of $32.5K. Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before News Break Trading information shows that traders estimated the likelihood of a political change at just under 7% in the late afternoon of the prior Friday. But the market's assessment had jumped to eleven percent by the end of the day and surged in the morning of Saturday, indicating a sharp shift in betting activity right before the official statement was made. "This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a trade based on confidential knowledge," said Dennis Kelleher. Several of other platform users also profited tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture. Political Attention Grows Politicians are beginning to pay attention. A new rule put forward on the start of the week would prevent public officials from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market. Market Background Prediction markets have surged in popularity in the past few years, with users able to bet on everything from sports to political events. Prediction markets were examined under the last presidential term. But it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency. Insider trading is illegal in the stock market, but there are less oversight in the event betting arena. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."