Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to ignite a Labour conference demonstrating the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.
As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.
In that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.
The Evolution of Stance and Settled Issues
Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite survey data indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if Europe may not be the boiling pot of British politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.
And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains quantified in low decimal points.
Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals
Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people by which youths can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.
David Lammy muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.
Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea would be to announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts
However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again cautioning that rejoining an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.
Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.
- Firstly, he believes a customs pact has been made much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
- Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced British officials that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Lastly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.
An Alarming Strategy and Strategic Considerations
This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper claims Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It includes a single mention to Britain, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to foster the rise of nationalist movements.
However, instead of concluding that this makes the US an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Succession Chatter and The Ghost from the Past
This situation brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not a pitch to become leader but simply an attempt to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.
Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.
Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Danger & A Wise Memory
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.
It would be prudent of him to remember the effect that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. There are options for a major proposal on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.
